Strategic Telemetry's 2012 Election Analysis

 


I see a Bunny! No, an Elephant!  No, it Definitely isn't an Elephant!  I see a Donkey!

4:27 pm EST 11/16/2012     Trackback

Ok, it isn't a cloud, it is county by county results sized by turnout (population size)


Four years later, how Obama’s vote changed – County by County Look

5:31 pm EST 11/12/2012    Trackback


 Snapshot of the Election, County by County

5:31 pm EST 11/12/2012    Trackback

 


Snapshot of the Race, County by County

11:11 pm EST 11/6/2012    Trackback 

 

 

 

 


Florida Analysis

10:29 pm EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

Clearly, FL will be close, but there are some very positive signs for Obama.  Although he is underperforming his '08 vote share in 52 out of 65 counties reporting thus far, the counties where he's over-performing are the ones that matter.  His biggest improvement over 2008 is in Miami-Dade, which also happens to be the biggest county.  Also, only 40% of the precincts in Miami-Dade have reported as of 10:09 eastern.

 


Precincts Reporting as of 9:39 EST

10:13 pm EST 11/6/2012     Trackback


 

 


Ohio Analyisis

9:35 pm EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

As of 9:33 eastern:  Overall, President Obama is trailing his 2008 vote share by 3.4% in the 307 counties that are reporting 100% of their precincts in.   Some slippage is to be expected compared to his very high margins in 2008, and the -3.4% is well within the margin that he can absorb and still hit 270 electoral votes.  One very significant bright spot for Obama is that he is outperforming his 2008 vote share by 2.8% in the Ohio counties that are reporting 100% of their precincts in.  

One note of caution.  It appears that many of the counties that are reporting 100% of their precincts in have not yet included early vote and absentee in their totals. 

 


Weather and Sports at 20 after the Hour

4:13 pm EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

The polls are open in all 3,145 counties nationwide, and we have weather reports from 3,101 of them .  It's raining or snowing in 155, or 4.8% of counties.  The bad weather is disproportionately in Obama counties.  9.8% of counties carried by Obama in 2008 are experiencing some kind of precipitation as of 3pm eastern, compared to 3.2% for counties carried by McCain.
 
Of course this is a largely meaningless statistic, but seeing as how this is something everyone talks about, we thought we'd run the numbers.   Two things to keep in mind:  Obama has more support in northern states where the weather is more likely to be snowy, and McCain of course did well in AZ where, as per usual all 15 counties are reporting sunny weather.

 Weather by 2008 Counties

 

 


State by State Changes in the Number of Electoral Votes

1:00 pm EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

The 2010 reapportionment made Romney's path to 270 electoral votes a little bit easier. States (and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District) that Obama carried in 2008 represented 365 electoral votes at the time. They now represent 359 electoral votes.


Safe Democratic states accounted for 190 Electoral Votes in 2008, but those same states now have 186 Electoral Votes for a net loss of 4 votes. Washington is the one safe Democratic state that gained an electoral vote, but Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois lost one vote each, and New York lost two.

On the Republican side, safe Republican states had 179 Electoral Votes in 2008, but now have 185 for a net gain of six votes. Louisiana and Missouri each lost one vote, but they are offset by gains of one vote each from Utah, Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina, and a 4 vote gain in Texas.

 State by State Electoral College Change

 


Very Early Results

11:00 am EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

42 votes counted so far. Thank you Dixville Notch and Hart's Location NH for giving us something to talk about until the polls close in IN and KY.

 Early Results

 

 


 Recent Interview with Ken Strasma

10:00 am EST 11/6/2012     Trackback

Electing a President in a Micro-targeted World

A Harvard Business Review interview with Strategic Telemetry's Ken Strasma, Obama's 2008 Targeting Consultant.